FIFA World Cup 2026 Editorial Analysis & Probabilities Guide
Dynamic Standings

Championship Path Probabilities

Search and evaluate predictions for all 48 participating countries. Track respective win chances, round advancement statistics, and comparative group strengths.

Rank Country Group Title Odds Win Chance Reach Final Reach Semifinal Reach Quarterfinal Win Group Chance
1 Spain Group H +475 17.4% 31.3% 50.0% 61.5% 81.8%
2 France Group I +500 16.7% 25.0% 43.5% 57.4% 69.7%
3 England Group L +650 13.3% 25.0% 41.7% 59.2% 76.2%
4 Brazil Group C +800 11.1% 20.0% 35.7% 54.5% 78.7%
5 Argentina Group J +900 10.0% 19.0% 34.5% 52.4% 77.3%
6 Portugal Group K +1000 9.1% 16.7% 33.3% 50.0% 69.7%
7 Germany Group E +1400 6.7% 15.4% 27.8% 43.5% 75.6%
8 Netherlands Group F +2000 4.8% 10.0% 18.2% 35.7% 53.5%
9 Norway Group I +3000 3.2% 7.7% 15.4% 27.8% 26.7%
10 Belgium Group G +3500 2.8% 7.7% 16.7% 40.0% 69.7%
11 Colombia Group K +4000 2.4% 5.3% 12.5% 26.3% 29.4%
12 USA Group D +6000 1.6% 5.3% 10.5% 26.7% 44.4%
13 Morocco Group C +5000 2.0% 4.3% 9.1% 22.2% 19.0%
14 Japan Group F +6500 1.5% 3.8% 8.3% 20.0% 28.6%
15 Mexico Group A +8000 1.2% 3.8% 7.7% 22.2% 52.4%
16 Uruguay Group H +6500 1.5% 4.8% 13.3% 25.0% 21.3%
17 Switzerland Group B +6500 1.5% 5.3% 10.5% 26.7% 51.2%
18 Turkey Group D +10000 1.0% 3.8% 10.0% 25.0% 33.3%
19 Ecuador Group E +8000 1.2% 2.8% 6.7% 15.4% 22.2%
20 Croatia Group L +8000 1.2% 3.4% 9.1% 20.0% 22.2%
21 Senegal Group I +9000 1.1% 2.4% 5.3% 13.3% 11.8%
22 Sweden Group F +10000 1.0% 2.0% 6.7% 13.3% 22.2%
23 Austria Group J +15000 0.7% 2.4% 5.9% 12.5% 18.2%
24 Canada Group B +20000 0.5% 2.4% 5.9% 18.2% 34.5%
25 Paraguay Group D +30000 0.3% 1.5% 3.8% 11.1% 20.0%
26 Bosnia Group B +50000 0.2% 1.2% 3.2% 10.5% 21.3%
27 Scotland Group C +20000 0.5% 1.2% 3.4% 11.1% 10.0%
28 Czech Republic Group A +25000 0.4% 0.5% 3.8% 11.8% 26.3%
29 Ivory Coast Group E +25000 0.4% 1.2% 3.4% 9.1% 14.3%
30 Egypt Group G +30000 0.3% 1.2% 3.2% 10.0% 20.0%
31 Algeria Group J +35000 0.3% 1.5% 4.8% 11.1% 12.5%
32 Ghana Group L +30000 0.3% 1.2% 3.2% 7.7% 9.1%
33 South Korea Group A +40000 0.2% 1.5% 3.4% 13.3% 25.0%
34 Australia Group D +60000 0.2% 1.0% 1.5% 5.9% 12.5%
35 Tunisia Group F +70000 0.1% 0.5% 1.2% 4.8% 8.3%
36 Iran Group G +70000 0.1% 1.0% 2.4% 9.1% 18.2%
37 DR Congo Group K +100000 0.1% 0.7% 2.4% 5.9% 8.3%
38 South Africa Group A +100000 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% 4.8% 7.7%
39 Qatar Group B +150000 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 2.8% 3.4%
40 Saudi Arabia Group H +100000 0.1% 0.4% 1.2% 4.3% 5.3%
41 Iraq Group I +150000 0.1% 0.2% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
42 Panama Group L +100000 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% 3.2% 3.2%
43 New Zealand Group G +150000 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 2.4% 3.8%
44 Cape Verde Group H +100000 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 2.0% 2.4%
45 Uzbekistan Group K +150000 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 2.8% 2.8%
46 Curacao Group E +250000 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8%
47 Jordan Group J +250000 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 2.0% 2.4%
48 Haiti Group C +250000 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7%