FIFA World Cup 2026 Editorial Analysis & Probabilities Guide
Group Stage Projections

Groups A through L

Teams sorted dynamically by their mathematical likelihood of winning their respective group. Evaluate critical top-two advancement metrics.

Group A Win Group %
15 Mexico
52.4%
28 Czech Republic
26.3%
33 South Korea
25.0%
38 South Africa
7.7%
Group B Win Group %
17 Switzerland
51.2%
24 Canada
34.5%
26 Bosnia
21.3%
39 Qatar
3.4%
Group C Win Group %
4 Brazil
78.7%
13 Morocco
19.0%
27 Scotland
10.0%
48 Haiti
0.7%
Group D Win Group %
12 USA
44.4%
18 Turkey
33.3%
25 Paraguay
20.0%
34 Australia
12.5%
Group E Win Group %
7 Germany
75.6%
19 Ecuador
22.2%
29 Ivory Coast
14.3%
46 Curacao
0.8%
Group F Win Group %
8 Netherlands
53.5%
14 Japan
28.6%
22 Sweden
22.2%
35 Tunisia
8.3%
Group G Win Group %
10 Belgium
69.7%
30 Egypt
20.0%
36 Iran
18.2%
43 New Zealand
3.8%
Group H Win Group %
1 Spain
81.8%
16 Uruguay
21.3%
40 Saudi Arabia
5.3%
44 Cape Verde
2.4%
Group I Win Group %
2 France
69.7%
9 Norway
26.7%
21 Senegal
11.8%
41 Iraq
2.0%
Group J Win Group %
5 Argentina
77.3%
23 Austria
18.2%
31 Algeria
12.5%
47 Jordan
2.4%
Group K Win Group %
6 Portugal
69.7%
11 Colombia
29.4%
37 DR Congo
8.3%
45 Uzbekistan
2.8%
Group L Win Group %
3 England
76.2%
20 Croatia
22.2%
32 Ghana
9.1%
42 Panama
3.2%